Cooler world 2050

Jim Yong Kim, the President of the World Bank, said that in order to “stabilize warming at 2 degrees Celsius, as the international community agreed in 2009, we must achieve zero net emissions of greenhouse gasses before 2100.” It is necessary to transform the economy. This view is shared by countries and experts that have proposed the goal of limiting liquid emissions to zero by second half of the century. This means that by 2050, the world will not be emitting more than terrestrial ecosystems are able to capture each year.

Buildings/Cities

According to the IPCC new buildings use between 60 and 90% less energy than conventional buildings of a similar type and configuration. They are more energy efficient due to technological advances, know-how and to recently implemented policies and programs whilst maintaining their profitability. Culture, lifestyle and behavior are also influential factors when measuring the energy consumption of buildings.

Industry

The IPCC’s 5th assessment report states that energy intensity from the industrial sector could be directly reduced by approximately 25% in relation to the actual level through large scale modernization and by the replacement and implementation of improved technologies. This is especially true in countries where these are not being used as well as in non-intensive energy industries. Approximately 20% can potentially be accomplished through innovation.

Water

According to the United Nations Inter-agency Mechanism on all Freshwater Related Issues, Including Sanitation, global targets for the water sector are integrated and interconnected: universal access to freshwater; improving sanitation and hygiene in the use of sustainable development of the water supply in every country; reducing untreated waste water; reducing disasters related to pollution and increase the reuse of residual water; reducing economic loss mortality and due to natural disasters or due to human factors.

Hydropower

The World Energy Council states that hydropower represents approximately 15% of all electric energy consumed. Despite recent technological advances in other types of electrical power generation, water dams will continue to be the cornerstone for an energy sustainability policy at the global level. Nevertheless, the greatest challenges of this century will be the development and construction of these projects, awareness by governments and its promoters and the implementation of social and environmental protection policies.

Biodiversity

Climate change is the main threat to biodiversity, through ecosystem destruction, the food chain disruption, the development of new pathogenic agents or the increased risk of the extinction of species. Ecosystems and species will not have enough time to adapt to new climate conditions. Ecosystems which are significant at the global level, such as the Amazonian Rain Forest and the Great Barrier Reef are already threatened and suffering the effects of climate change. Biodiversity Conservation policies contribute to a more resilient ecosystem as well as to mitigating climate change.

Windpower

Wind power was the first renewable energy to reach volume at a large scale (there are over 50 GW of capacity installed in the world today. Technological advances have made, under certain conditions, wind power competitive with fossil energy. In countries like Portugal or Denmark wind power contributes significantly to electrical production. New technological advances, such as offshore wind farms, can increase the use of wind power. Many renewable energy technologies have shown a substantial improvement in performance and cost reduction. Furthermore, an increasing number of technologies have reached a level of maturity allowing a significant level of implementation. The increase in renewable energy will impact the positively in a country’s trade balance.

Mobility

Unless ambitious policies are implemented the use of fuel in freight transport will double between 2010 and 2050. Nevertheless, through efficiency improvements, energy can be saved in this sector. According to the IPCC the demand for energy in 2050 can be reduced by 40% due to the technical and behavioral measures in the reduction of transportation; new infrastructures; investment and urban redevelopment.

Forests

Forests have a very significant role in the path towards a “cooler world”. All scenarios compatible with the aim of 2ºC imply the elimination of net deforestation and the increase of carbon capture at the global level. The United Nations Collaborative Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries launched its Aichi 2020 Targets. Through the Convention on Biological Diversity countries have set ambitious goals for the conservation, use and recuperation of forests and through the UNFCCC, countries are discussing a financial mechanism to promote REDD+. The most profitable mitigation options in the forestry sector are reforestation, sustainable forest management and the reduction in deforestation with significant differences between regions.

Solar Energy

Photovoltaic (solar) energy is reaching its maturity. In the last few years solar energy has experienced the largest annual capacity increase of all energy sources in several developed nations. According to the International Energy Agency, in times of extreme volatility solar energy could supply up to one third of the worldwide energy demand post 2060.

Agriculture and nutrition

The IPCC classifies adaptation in the agricultural sector to include technological solutions, improving access to micro credit by smallholder farmers as well as to other resources essential to production. The most profitable mitigation options are agricultural soil management, management of pastures and the remediation of organic soils. Simultaneously, nutritional choices are also a large determinant of emissions in the primary sector: western-based hyper caloric diets, replicated in emerging countries will usually imply an increased use of soil for intensive pasture, intensive use of chemical fertilizers and often, massive transportation needs.

2 degrees

According to the latest IPCC report in order “to keep a good chance of staying below 2ºC, and at manageable costs, our emissions should drop by 40 to 70 percent globally between 2010 and 2050, falling to zero or below by 2100.” Adaptation and mitigation strategies are complementary in order to reduce and control the risks of climate change. Substantial emissions reductions in the next decades can reduce climate risks in the 21st century and increase the perspectives of efficient adaptation. The path toward sustainable development lies in the long term reduction of costs and challenges of mitigation while simultaneously minimizing climate impacts.

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According to the latest IPCC report in order “to keep a good chance of staying below 2ºC, and at manageable costs, our emissions should drop by 40 to 70 percent globally between 2010 and 2050, falling to zero or below by 2100.”
Adaptation and mitigation strategies are complementary in order to reduce and control the risks of climate change. Substantial emissions reductions in the next decades can reduce climate risks in the 21st century and increase the perspectives of efficient adaptation. The path toward sustainable development lies in the long term reduction of costs and challenges of mitigation while simultaneously minimizing climate impacts.

Jim Yonk Kim, the President of the World Bank, said that in order to “stabilize warming at 2 degrees Celsius, as the international community agreed in 2009, we must achieve zero net emissions of greenhouse gasses before 2100.” It is necessary to transform the economy. This view is shared by countries and experts that have proposed the goal of limiting liquid emissions to zero by second half of the century. This means that by 2050, the world will not be emitting more than terrestrial ecosystems are able to capture each year.

According to the IPCC new buildings use between 60 and 90% less energy than conventional buildings of a similar type and configuration. They are more energy efficient due to technological advances, know-how and to recently implemented policies and programs whilst maintaining their profitability. Culture, lifestyle and behavior are also influential factors when measuring the energy consumption of buildings.

 

The IPCC’s 5th assessment report states that energy intensity from the industrial sector could be directly reduced by approximately 25% in relation to the actual level through large scale modernization and by the replacement and implementation of improved technologies. This is especially true in countries where these are not being used as well as in non-intensive energy industries. Approximately 20% can potentially be accomplished through innovation.

 

According to the United Nations Inter-agency Mechanism on all Freshwater Related Issues, Including Sanitation, global targets for the water sector are integrated and interconnected: universal access to freshwater; improving sanitation and hygiene in the use of sustainable development of the water supply in every country; reducing untreated waste water; reducing disasters related to pollution and increase the reuse of residual water; reducing economic loss mortality and due to natural disasters or due to human factors.

The World Energy Council states that hydropower represents approximately 15% of all electric energy consumed. Despite recent technological advances in other types of electrical power generation, water dams will continue to be the cornerstone for an energy sustainability policy at the global level. Nevertheless, the greatest challenges of this century will be the development and construction of these projects, awareness by governments and its promoters and the implementation of social and environmental protection policies.

Climate change is the main threat to biodiversity, through ecosystem destruction, the food chain disruption, the development of new pathogenic agents or the increased risk of the extinction of species. Ecosystems and species will not have enough time to adapt to new climate conditions. Ecosystems which are significant at the global level, such as the Amazonian Rain Forest and the Great Barrier Reef are already threatened and suffering the effects of climate change. Biodiversity Conservation policies contribute to a more resilient ecosystem as well as to mitigating climate change.

Forests have a very significant role in the path towards a “cooler world”. All scenarios compatible with the aim of 2ºC imply the elimination of net deforestation and the increase of carbon capture at the global level. The United Nations Collaborative Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries launched its Aichi 2020 Targets. Through the Convention on Biological Diversity countries have set ambitious goals for the conservation, use and recuperation of forests and through the UNFCCC, countries are discussing a financial mechanism to promote REDD+.

The most profitable mitigation options in the forestry sector are reforestation, sustainable forest management and the reduction in deforestation with significant differences between regions.

Unless ambitious policies are implemented the use of fuel in freight transport will double between 2010 and 2050. Nevertheless, through efficiency improvements, energy can be saved in this sector. According to the IPCC the demand for energy in 2050 can be reduced by 40% due to the technical and behavioral measures in the reduction of transportation; new infrastructures; investment and urban redevelopment.

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Wind power was the first renewable energy to reach volume at a large scale (there are over 50 GW of capacity installed in the world today. Technological advances have made, under certain conditions, wind power competitive with fossil energy. In countries like Portugal or Denmark wind power contributes significantly to electrical production. New technological advances, such as offshore wind farms, can increase the use of wind power. Many renewable energy technologies have shown a substantial improvement in performance and cost reduction. Furthermore, an increasing number of technologies have reached a level of maturity allowing a significant level of implementation. The increase in renewable energy will impact the positively in a country’s trade balance.

Photovoltaic (solar) energy is reaching its maturity. In the last few years solar energy has experienced the largest annual capacity increase of all energy sources in several developed nations. According to the International Energy Agency, in times of extreme volatility solar energy could supply up to one third of the worldwide energy demand post 2060.

The IPCC classifies adaptation in the agricultural sector to include technological solutions, improving access to micro credit by smallholder farmers as well as to other resources essential to production. The most profitable mitigation options are agricultural soil management, management of pastures and the remediation of organic soils. Simultaneously, nutritional choices are also a large determinant of emissions in the primary sector: western-based hyper caloric diets, replicated in emerging countries will usually imply an increased use of soil for intensive pasture, intensive use of chemical fertilizers and often, massive transportation needs.

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geral@get2c.com

 

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